2019: What Lies Ahead? Part 02
Impeachment of President Donald Trump?
The word has been thrown around repeatedly during the last 20 years but especially come to the fore with the election of Donald Trump. Now with the incoming 116th Congress of January 2019, with the opposition Democratic Party taking the House of Representatives, talk of the impeachment of President Trump is ‘in the air.’
No sooner had freshmen (or women) representatives taken their oath of office than they were taking of impeachment. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (known as AOC), age 29 from New York, a female Hispanic socialist in the mould of Bernie Sanders, said the impeachment of President Trump was ‘a no brainer.’ Rep. Rashida Tlaib, a Palestinian Muslim from Michigan, gained international attention by vowing on her first day in office that her party was going to ‘impeach the mxxx fxxx.’
By the way, the Democrats have been talking about impeaching President Trump for the last two years. They even mused on it before he ever took the oath of office.
Impeachment Defined
While we are on the subject, what, on earth, is impeachment? It is when a legislative body charges a government official of serious misconduct. It is like an indictment in criminal law. Once charged, that official faces a trial where the jurors are legislators. If convicted, then the official is removed from office.
The United States Constitution, Article One, gives the House of Representatives the sole power to bring charges, known as ‘articles of impeachment,’ against an official. The Senate has the sole power to try the official, either with an acquittal or conviction. In the case of a President, the US Chief Justice of the Supreme Court will preside over the Senate trial. In order to have a conviction, the Senate has to have a 2/3rds majority, namely 67 out of 100 senators must vote against the President.
Impeachment is overturning of a election result and it takes solid majority of senators to bring a conviction. This will not be easy so there has to be a clear-cut case of abuse leading to ‘bribery, treason, and other high crimes and misdemeanours.’ These definitions are subject to interpretation of the congressmen. Even the US Supreme court is not authorised to make a determination or advise the congress on these key terms.
Only two times in US history has a President been impeached. The first was in 1868 when President Andrew Johnson, the successor to the assassinated Abraham Lincoln who was filling his unexpired term, was impeached for violating the Tenure of Office Act. The Senate voted against him 35-19, but it fell short of a conviction by only one vote. The law which triggered Johnson’s impeachment was later declared to be unconstitutional by the US Supreme Court.
The second presidential impeachment was of Bill Clinton in December 1998. The Republican-dominated House of Representatives voted impeachment for two crimes: Lying to a federal grand jury, known as perjury, 228-206 votes. The other charge was ‘obstruction of justice,’ 221-212 votes. In February 1999, Clinton was acquitted in the Senate for failure to meet the two-thirds threshold. The Senate vote 45-55 on the charge of obstruction of justice and perjury was 50-50.
On the other hand, Richard Nixon would have been impeached by the House and convicted by the Senate during the 1972-1974 Watergate scandal. Yet his resignation as President in August 1974, followed by his presidential pardon the next month, put an end to the proceedings.
It appears that impeachment has evolved from being less of a judicial process to more of a political one. The intentions of the US Constitution are noble – to preserve the treasured ‘checks and balances’ that make for good governance. Yet the politicisation of impeachment threatens to undo its original purpose. Since the time of Nixon, other Presidents have been threatened with attempts of impeachment, including George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump. This means that since 1993, every one of the 4 Presidents in office have either been impeached (Clinton) or threatened with impeachment.
So, will President Trump be impeached by the US House of Representatives? Consider this: Congress appears to have sole discretion what constitutes the threshold of impeachment, namely ‘high crimes and misdemeanours.’ The House of Representatives is as polarised and partisan as ever, with Democrats talking regularly about impeachment. Under the circumstances, impeachment is a possibility. Yet, it is also a gamble, too. President Clinton received elevated approval ratings during the 1998 Lewinsky scandal that led to his impeachment; his party even gained seats in the November 1998 mid-terms. If the Democrats are perceived as going too far, it will play right into Mr. Trump’s hands.
Another thing to consider: Only the Senate can remove the President and they need 67 votes to do it. Since Mr. Trump’s Republican party has a slim majority in the Senate, the chances of conviction are very low – as they were for Clinton.
(Our main article, 2019: What Lies Ahead will continue)