It should have come as no surprise. On Tuesday 8 May 2018, United States President Donald Trump made the grand announcement – that the United States was withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal. He promised to do so during his 2016 Presidential campaign. He repeatedly made noises about this nuclear deal as being the ‘worst deal’ he has ever seen. So Mr. Trump has kept his campaign promise. What, however, does this mean for the world? Is it good news, bad news, or both?
For years, the world has looked with great concern as Iran pursued nuclear power, which, it consistently proclaimed was only for peaceful purposes. Why did a nation with 10% of the world’s oil and the 2nd largest gas reserves need to go nuclear? The Islamic Republic has a well-known habit of proclaiming ‘death’ to America. They predict that Israel will ‘disappear’ within 25 years. Why was Iran developing ballistic missiles that were able to reach all of the Middle East and much of Europe?
Despite the regime’s declared peaceful intentions, the world community obviously did not believe them: hence, heavy sanctions were levied by the United States, the United Nations, and the European Union. All these sanctions had a debilitating effect on Iran’s economy.
Under former US President Barack Obama, the US, the European Union, Germany and the other four permanent members of the UN Security Council (Russia, China, France, United Kingdom) negotiated with Iran to forge a nuclear agreement. The idea was that Iran would receive sanction-relief in exchange for strict limitations on its nuclear program. The goal: to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. The parties did come to an agreement on 14 July 2015 and the Iran nuclear agreement became known as Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). It has been operative ever since and Iran has allegedly been in compliance with the terms of the agreement. In exchange, it has received $100 billion dollars or more, along with full oil exports, all of which helped its moribund economy
So practically speaking, what did President Trump’s announcement actually do? He did not end the JCPOA – he merely withdrew American participation in it. It is no longer US foreign policy. The other signatories are free to abide by it and the UK was one of the first to say that it would.
No question, Mr. Trump’s action would be controversial. It is also unilateral, not multi-lateral, since the other parties are still technically on board with the JCPOA. In theory, it could make the instability in the Middle East even more so. However, here are some things to consider.
Sunset Clause: The JCPOA in theory does not stop Iran from gaining a nuclear weapons capability; it merely slows it down. Within 10-15 years, the major restrictions on Iran will be lifted, thus allowing them to freely continue research and development, enrich uranium, and use advanced centrifuges. For agreeing to apply some brakes on their nuclear program, Iran received billions which have clearly gone to funnel militant groups. While Iran is to permanently renounce any pursuit of nuclear weapons, it has no legal impediment to do so after the restrictions expire.
Increased unrest: Since JCPOA, Iran-inspired unrest has increased in the Middle East. Hizballah, Iran’s proxy, has effectively taken over Lebanon. Iran has raised up its own army in Syria, where the slaughter has grown. Hamas in Gaza is being rearmed. Houthi rebels in Yemen have been armed by Iran with missiles, which have been fired into Saudi Arabia.
Non-transparency: Iran appears to have complied with the terms of the agreement. Or have they? Was not part of the deal that Iran would to be 100% transparent in regards to its nuclear history? They said that they have never sought to pursue nuclear weapons, while the recent evidence says otherwise. This is especially the case where Israel’s secret service, the Mossad, stole 1000s of pages of nuclear files from a secret storage facility in Tehran. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu then made a public presentation around these documents, which tell a different story to the official Iranian position.
Missiles: Iran’s pursuit of long-range ballistic missiles should be a concern for the Middle East and Europe. These are not even covered by the JCPOA. Even without nuclear weapons, these missiles can carry deadly payloads.
Legality: Normally a treaty has to be approved by 60 senators in the US Senate. This was not the case with JCPOA. In fact, symbolically 60% of all congressmen and senators voted against the agreement, including well-known left-wing Democratic allies of Obama. So it is safe to say that the agreement was never constitutionally ratified by the approval of 60 senators and therefore of dubious legality.
What next? Technically speaking, the JCPOA continues, minus the United States. The US will reimpose sanctions within 90 days. Iran has warned the US that it will ‘regret’ its move, while the US has told Iran it must not attack the US, or else face the dire consequences. Iranian parliamentarians have burned a US flag inside the parliament building (and were asked not to burn down the parliament building in the process). The other parties can continue on but without America. Israel, of course, is pleased about America’s withdrawal from JCPOA; so are Egypt, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and UAE. These nations see a potential Iranian nuclear weapon as much a mortal threat to them as does the Jewish state.
Iran has been successful in its goal of building a ‘Shia Crescent’ from Iraq to Syria to Lebanon (Persian Gulf to Mediterranean). However, the economy is weak, there have been robust domestic protests against the regime, it is spread thin in Syria, and faces a potential military encounter with Israel.
Iranian leadership is highly pragmatic and this may prevent extreme measures. So either Iran will submit to a North Korean-style rapprochement with America and the West, or it could lead to more trouble for the regime. We will know soon.